Warnings: Finding Cassandras to Stop Catastrophes

Former counterterrorism chief Richard A. Clarke and R. P. Eddy study people who correctly predicted disasters but were ignored, from Hurricane Katrina to the 2008 financial crisis. They ask why such Cassandras go unheard, what traits they share, and how decision makers can tell real warnings from false alarms. The authors then look at current experts warning about risks such as artificial intelligence, pandemics and sea-level rise.

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Shane Parrish: “Cassandra, as myth has it, was a beautiful princess of Troy. She was cursed by the God Apollo with the ability to see impending doom and have no one pay attention to her warnings. Her people ridiculed her when she predicted the demise of Troy. She was right. Too right.”