Everything Is Obvious: *Once You Know the Answer
Categories: Politics & Social Sciences, Science & Math
Sociologist Duncan J. Watts argues that common sense, while useful in everyday life, often misleads us when we try to understand complex social systems. He shows how hindsight makes outcomes seem obvious and leads businesses, governments and individuals to make flawed predictions and plans. Drawing on network science and experiments, Watts explains why success is hard to predict and offers better ways to plan, measure and learn in an uncertain world.
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- Shane Parrish: ““Every once in a while, a book comes along that forces us to re-examine what we know and how we know it. This is one of those books. And while it is not always pleasurable to realize the many ways in which we are wrong, it is useful to figure out the cases where our intuitions fail us.”—Dan Ariely”